The Hockey Stick is Dead

Or at least dieing. This chart has played a big role in the global warming movement and was originally included in the IPCC report.

Image

It was named “Hockey Stick” because of its shape. Namely, the rapid up tick for the later years – beginning sometime after 1900. This is based on “Proxy” data, meaning not from true temperature measurements.

Yamal refers to tree ring data, used as a temperature proxy, from Yamal, Russia. Go here and read the post or scroll down and read the numbered paragraphs. For over a decade people have been trying to get the original data for review. This link, “The Yamal Implosion“, is supposed to be more layman friendly.

Now it is true that tree cores are only part of the basis of the original hockey stick. However, the temperature measurements must also be corrected. Why? Urban sprawl! Weather sensors that were originally in rural settings, are now in urban centers with concrete and asphalt around them instead of trees and grass. In fact, a group of concerned citizens have organized to investigate the siting of national weather monitoring stations. Here is an example from York, Nebraska.

York NE street level detail

So the data must be corrected in some manner if you are going to use data from the early or mid 1900s to current data. The skeptics also want a full disclosure of this data, along with the corrections. A cynic might think they cherry picked the data. Then there is this from a Finnish professor who is NOT a skeptic:

I put immediately forward a thesis that I’m glad to expose to public criticism: when later generations learn about climate science, they will classify the beginning of 21st century as an embarrassing chapter in history of science. They will wonder our time, and use it as a warning of how the core values and criteria of science were allowed little by little to be forgotten as the actual research topic — climate change — turned into a political and social playground.

He too realizes that too much of the science is political science and not real science.

Another example is a study recently published in the prestigious journal Science. It is concluded in the article that the average temperatures in the Arctic region are much higher now than at any time in the past two thousand years. The result may well be true, but the way the researchers ended up with this conclusion raises questions. Proxies have been included selectively, they have been digested, manipulated, filtered, and combined, for example, data collected from Finland in the past by my own colleagues has even been turned upside down such that the warm periods become cold and vice versa. Normally, this would be considered as a scientific forgery, which has serious consequences.

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