Archive for the ‘2012 Elections’ Category

Polls and Predictions

From now on, all most all polls will use likely voters. You can ignore any poll that does not. Up till now, many polls used registered voters and often were skewed toward Democrat voters – meaning more Democrats were polled than represented by the percentage of registered voters (called over weighting). One explanation for the skew is the poor have a disproportionate number of the land lines and are usually registered Democrats. But from now on the accuracy of the pollster is directly related to future business so now they MUST use likely voters and pay much more attention to accurately reflect the voter database.

If you are like me and decided early to vote for ABO (Anybody But Obama), and felt there is no way people could possibly vote him in for another four years, only to find poll after poll showing him leading or tied, there is some hope. Professors from Colorado University no less! I’m not giddy but at least there appears to be hope… Real hope we get real change!

But make sure you vote for Tea Party candidates for Congress. It is not as if the GOP establishment has been a model of smaller government.

DNC Convention Starts

Just to show the problem and errors of this administration, the national debt hit 16 trillion the day the DNC convention started. Congratulations! If you are a taxpayer, now just a little over half of our citizens, you now owe over $140,000 and growing.

Four more years? Only if you want to end up like Greece! If you pay taxes, you better vote Obama out of office. More importantly, vote for Tea Party candidates for Congress, of either party – Congress IS the real power of the people. It is still going to be a tough slog with higher taxes, perhaps a decade or more, otherwise we will be headed to a complete collapse of the dollar and our economy. Even if you are getting a free lunch, voting for Obama will ensure the axiom “There is no free lunch” will be proven once again and your future will be rioting in the streets. It will truly be the end of welfare as we know it. Best join a church and start making friends – you will need them.

Mitt Romney – What the media won’t say

I thought I remembered Romney not taking a salary for his service when he headed the Salt Lake Winter Olympics or as Governor of Mass. So I did a little checking.

This is from Snopes:

When the organizing committee posted a surplus of nearly $100 million after the Games, Romney accepted $922,980 in total salary as well as the $476,000 severance package. [His spokesman, Eric] Fehrnstrom said Romney gave his salary as well as the severance pay to charity. Romney and his wife, Ann, also donated $1 million to the organizing committee during his tenure.

As governor of Massachusetts – 4 years.

Just prior to his swearing-in as Massachusetts’ governor in 2003, Mitt Romney’s transition team announced that he and his lieutenant governor would not take salaries ($135,000 and $120,000 per year, respectively) while in office.

I will wager Jon Corzine took every penny of his salary as governor and senator of New Jersey.

Once again, you have to do your own fact checking!

Want to see the effect of Uncertainty?

I can show you the effects of UNCERTAINTY! This is the May 2012 Unemployment figure from Calculated Risk. I’ve been a bit of a slacker while attending to family matters and, depending on access availability, may be offline again for a while.

I’ve added text to the plot to show you uncertainty. Click the image for a larger view and there it is! Also note the 1980 and 1981 curves (Ronald Reagan).

Uncertainty

This graphic alone should discourage any thinking person from voting for Obama again.

Did you also note the contrast between the ’80 and ’81 Reagan recessions versus the 2007 recession? If you listen to the Obama line, either from his own lips or his many media supporters, you hear he was dealt a very bad hand. True enough, but Reagan came into office with even more of a mess . Now Obama is asking you for another term because he went for government health care before making sure the economy recovered. You know the idiom: “Fool me once…”

The Payroll Tax Holiday

This was NOT a jobs program as the administration claimed. It was another Obama program in the vain of Cash for Clunkers. The 2% reduction in Social Security tax was only to the employee and NOT the employer so there was no incentive to the employer.

We already know SS is in trouble, so you, as the employee, got about $1,000 per year but will lose far more from your future SS. You might as well have robbed $1,000 each year from your kids piggy bank or college fund. They and your grandkids will end up paying big time while you will get even less in SS. In game theory parlance, this is called lose-lose. There are no winners now or ever. The sole purpose was for Obama to have something to show how he was helping the worker without adding to the national debt or borrowing from China because it is not funded out of normal government expenditures.

If you will remember, the Senate saw “Holiday”, passed a two month extension, and went on holiday. Your government at work. If he bought your vote with this Enron accounting trick, watch your back around your kids!

Who are the one percenters?

The left seems to assume they are all on Wall Street and Republicans. But what about all those athletes and entertainers? While I agree that CEO pay is too high in many corporations for the role they play, they at least oversee a large number of jobs. Athletes and entertainers, not so much. While some are admirable in their philanthropic efforts, few would last one year in STEM college courses or occupations. So let us review some of those Wall Street one percenters.

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The current role of the Tea Party – Educating voters

Most people do not follow politics in great detail. They have lives to live, a family to raise, jobs, if they are lucky, and they get their news mostly from TV news channels, many of which deliver highly edited news.

So here is the history of why the Bush administration looked so bad at the end of its administration.

Some people aren’t aware of this history. Don’t just skim over this, please read it slowly and let it sink in. If in doubt, check it out.

The day the Democrats took over was not January 22nd 2009, it was actually January 3rd 2007, the day the Democrats took over the House of Representatives and the Senate, at the very start of the 110th Congress.

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The real unemployment rate

Mort Zuckerman explains the real unemployment rate on the CNN Fareed Zakaria Global Public Square (GPS) program of 01/22/2012. Note that the number he arrives at is what current unemployment would be if the government still calculated unemployment like it was during the Great Depression! And the number is NOT that different!

Get the Flash Player to see the wordTube Media Player.

You can watch the whole GPS panel discussion here. Most of the panel, at the end of January 2012, thought the Tea Party was done. No, we were done protesting. Now we are educating; explaining the Federalist papers, showing our neighbors the government is robbing the future of our children and grandchildren, we are the minutemen of, hopefully, the second Reagan revolution. We know the real power is Congress – state and federal. Most of us realize 2012 will be the most important election since 1860. This time, we will not relent until the scope of government is reduced, more in line with what our founding fathers had visualized.

The trend is your friend

That is what this administration said when the monthly new jobs added were low but in a positive direction.

You will not be hearing this phrase for some time. But you will hear, “we’ve been adding jobs for 27 months”. Tell that to the new graduates who can’t find a job. By the time Reagan faced reelection, the economy had turned around. And he was dealt a worse hand than this guy.

May 2012 employment report… KA-BOOM!!

Goodbye Mr. President. Let them explain why only 69,000 jobs were added in May 2012. Watch your 401K fall, the stock market, your sales and almost everything economic. We may well see another recession, the infamous double dip, before the election. January 2013 hangs over the economy like the Sword of Damocles, the Eurozone problem adds to the uncertainty. How long can the Chicago statist crowd fool the people? After all, Honest Abe said “you can’t fool all of the people all the time.”

What is going on? Uncertainty baby – the U word. You hear it more and more by the talking heads on business channels. For proof that uncertainty is the problem, all I have to do is point out the inherited recession of this administration ended, by definition, in June 2009. If we go into recession after only three years, having experienced little or no real recovery, it can only be defined by “Epic Fail”.